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Albacete 4–0 Ibiza

← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Dec 18, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win52%1.85
Draw29%3.31
Ibiza win18%5.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −0.553%1.85
Ibiza −0.547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.59

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Suleiman Camara · Ibiza
11'⚽Maikel Mesa · Albacete
27'🟨Juan Fernández · Ibiza
28'⚽ (pen)Higinio Marín · Albacete
32'🟨Martín Pascual · Ibiza
45'⚽Manuel Fuster · Albacete
57'🟨Papakouli Diop · Ibiza
65'🟨Cristian Glauder · Albacete
81'⚽Álvaro Rodriguez · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
10Shots11
4On target3
5Corners2
17Fouls13
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteIbiza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.20
box share (last 5)0.570.67
cards avg (last 5)2.803.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Carlos Belmonte
coach days200.0047.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.606.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.852.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.340.46
elo1448.511398.65
elo momentum (last 5)3.44-14.45
eye test v1-0.27-0.39
eye trend v10.450.16
first sub minute (last 10)58.8057.20
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.79—
league points31.0016.00
league rank10.0024.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6072.40
possession avg (last 5)41.0041.80
rest days6.717.00
scorer concentration0.250.36
season ppg1.410.73
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.60-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.608.40
skill v1-0.94-0.90
sot against avg (last 5)6.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.40
squad age26.1124.95
state index-0.48-0.74
sterile dominance v1-0.35-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.300.18
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.00