⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Deportivo Alavés 0–2 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2022 · Mon, Dec 12, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Milla

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Deportivo Alavés win35%2.79
Draw33%3.00
Levante UD win32%3.02

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Deportivo Alavés +052%1.87
Levante UD +048%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.49
Over36%2.71

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Mohamed Bouldini · Levante UD
28'🟨Anderson Arroyo · Deportivo Alavés
30'🟨Álex Muñoz · Levante UD
45'🟨Rubén Duarte · Deportivo Alavés
45'⚽Son · Levante UD
49'🟨Pepelu · Levante UD
54'🟨Mohamed Bouldini · Levante UD
61'🟨Aleksandar Sedlar · Deportivo Alavés
90'🟥Mamadou Sylla · Deportivo Alavés

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
11Shots7
1On target5
6Corners2
21Fouls15
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDeportivo AlavésLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.730.59
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Mendizorroza
2.80
coach days225.0072.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.023.34
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.06
dominance (last 5)0.420.55
elo1574.691629.82
elo momentum (last 5)-3.46-4.25
eye test v1-1.20-0.18
eye trend v10.180.11
first sub minute (last 10)53.0053.30
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.710.83
league points38.0038.00
league rank2.001.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2082.00
possession avg (last 5)39.0054.80
rest days5.004.10
scorer concentration0.210.19
season ppg1.811.81
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.402.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.6013.40
skill v1-1.460.80
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.60
squad age26.5626.14
state index0.110.47
sterile dominance v1-0.530.44
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.180.26
threat rate (last 5)0.200.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.20