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Granada 3–1 Deportivo Alavés

← Segunda División 2022 · Fri, Dec 2, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: José López

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win41%2.38
Draw32%3.01
Deportivo Alavés win27%3.56

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Deportivo Alavés −0.2551%1.93
Granada −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.51
Over36%2.66

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Xeber Alkain · Deportivo Alavés
23'⚽Myrto Uzuni · Granada
28'🟨Rubén Duarte · Deportivo Alavés
31'⚽Myrto Uzuni · Granada
33'🟨Njegoš Petrović · Granada
34'🟥Xeber Alkain · Deportivo Alavés
40'🟨Salva Sevilla · Deportivo Alavés
41'🟨Abdelkabir Abqar · Deportivo Alavés
45'🟨Luis Rioja · Deportivo Alavés
50'🟨Óscar Melendo · Granada
51'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
12Shots3
7On target2
4Corners2
9Fouls14
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaDeportivo Alavés
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.400.69
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
Jorge Molina
· Granada
65'🟨Nahuel Tenaglia · Deportivo Alavés
68'🟨Ruben Rochina · Granada
69'🟨Taichi Hara · Deportivo Alavés
coach days31.00215.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.802.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.921.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.05
dominance (last 5)0.670.51
elo1594.031597.67
elo momentum (last 5)-14.6323.03
eye test v1-0.56-0.96
eye trend v10.12-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)49.8056.60
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)2.220.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.770.76
league points31.0038.00
league rank5.001.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6072.00
possession avg (last 5)55.8047.80
rest days5.236.22
scorer concentration0.400.24
season ppg1.632.00
shot diff avg (last 5)8.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.409.60
skill v10.47-0.55
sot against avg (last 5)1.802.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.60
squad age27.6127.51
state index0.550.53
sterile dominance v10.310.00
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20