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Albacete 2–1 Real Racing Club de Santander

← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, Nov 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win45%2.13
Draw31%3.10
Real Racing Club de Santander win24%4.24

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Real Racing Club de Santander −0.554%1.78
Albacete −0.546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.54
Over37%2.59

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Sergio Maestre · Albacete
34'⚽Maikel Mesa · Albacete
40'🟨Fausto Tienza · Real Racing Club de Santander
43'🟨Mohammed Djetei · Albacete
58'🟨Cristian Glauder · Albacete
60'⚽Iñigo Vicente · Real Racing Club de Santander
62'🟨Fausto Tienza · Real Racing Club de Santander
62'🟥Fausto Tienza · Real Racing Club de Santander
69'🟨Miguel Parera · Real Racing Club de Santander
73'🟨Maikel Mesa · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
5Shots10
3On target3
3Corners1
18Fouls17
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteReal Racing Club de Santander
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.550.60
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Carlos Belmonte
74'
🟨
Germán Sánchez · Real Racing Club de Santander
76'⚽Juan María Alcedo · Albacete
90'🟨Rubén Martínez · Albacete
90'🟥Aritz Aldasoro · Real Racing Club de Santander
2.00
coach days178.00574.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.872.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.06
dominance (last 5)0.320.42
elo1436.491415.37
elo momentum (last 5)-10.2013.60
eye test v1-0.61-0.46
eye trend v1-0.090.07
first sub minute (last 10)60.2060.70
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.730.90
league points24.0021.00
league rank10.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win7.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0068.20
possession avg (last 5)44.8038.40
rest days7.905.98
scorer concentration0.290.20
season ppg1.331.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.20-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.608.60
skill v1-0.48-1.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.40
squad age26.5527.28
state index-0.87-0.16
sterile dominance v10.17-0.93
threat rate (last 10)0.180.32
threat rate (last 3)0.170.29
threat rate (last 5)0.180.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60