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Granada 4–0 Albacete

← Segunda División 2022 · Fri, Nov 18, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win48%2.04
Draw29%3.40
Albacete win23%4.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −0.552%1.88
Granada −0.548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟥Flavien Boyomo · Albacete
24'🟨Antonio Puertas · Granada
34'🟨Julio Alonso · Albacete
35'🟨Mohammed Djetei · Albacete
45'🟨Ignasi Miquel · Granada
53'⚽José Callejón · Granada
58'🟨Víctor Díaz · Granada
61'🟥Álvaro Rodriguez · Albacete
71'⚽Ricard Sánchez · Granada
78'⚽Bryan Zaragoza · Granada
87'⚽ (og)Cristian Glauder · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
23Shots2
7On target1
7Corners1
18Fouls14
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.24—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.12—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.22—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.51—
cards avg (last 5)2.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
coach days17.00170.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.010.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.202.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.08
dominance (last 5)0.670.41
elo1596.111445.07
elo momentum (last 5)-22.91-1.91
eye test v1-0.50-0.42
eye trend v10.050.25
first sub minute (last 10)48.4061.60
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)2.080.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.800.64
league points28.0024.00
league rank4.009.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win3.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2077.80
possession avg (last 5)56.0050.60
rest days12.2012.00
scorer concentration0.500.29
season ppg1.651.41
shot diff avg (last 5)6.80-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.4010.20
skill v10.540.15
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.60
squad age28.7325.75
state index0.17-0.60
sterile dominance v10.340.43
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40