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Ibiza 0–2 Leganes

← Segunda División 2022 · Tue, Nov 1, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Quintero

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ibiza win34%2.89
Leganes win33%2.88
Draw32%3.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ibiza +051%1.94
Leganes +049%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.49
Over35%2.72

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Cristian Herrera · Ibiza
29'🟨Martín Pascual · Ibiza
45'⚽Dani Raba · Leganes
57'🟨David Goldar · Ibiza
77'🟨Riza Durmisi · Leganes
89'🟨Juan Muñoz · Leganes
90'🟨Kevin Appin · Ibiza
90'🟨Sergio Castel Martínez · Ibiza
90'⚽Naim García · Leganes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots11
3On target5
5Corners5
19Fouls12
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIbizaLeganes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.520.70
cards avg (last 5)3.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Can Misses – Power Electronic
coach days0.00153.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.732.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.07
dominance (last 5)0.360.44
elo1435.021497.95
elo momentum (last 5)-28.0919.54
eye test v1-0.77-0.15
eye trend v10.250.35
first sub minute (last 10)60.3058.10
form points (last 5)1.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.620.79
league points11.0014.00
league rank22.0019.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4079.20
possession avg (last 5)47.8050.00
rest days3.043.15
scorer concentration0.380.22
season ppg0.791.08
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.40-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.808.80
skill v1-0.200.20
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.603.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.00
squad age—25.08
state index-0.96-0.08
sterile dominance v10.390.64
threat rate (last 10)0.190.18
threat rate (last 3)0.220.18
threat rate (last 5)0.180.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60