← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Trujillo
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Lugo win | 42% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Burgos win | 27% | 3.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Lugo −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Burgos −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.49 |
| Over | 36% | 2.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand