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Granada 1–0 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2022 · Fri, Oct 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Raúl González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win45%2.15
Draw31%3.14
Zaragoza win24%4.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada −0.2553%1.82
Zaragoza −0.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.56
Over38%2.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Yann Bodiger · Granada
47'⚽Miguel Rubio · Granada
69'🟨Myrto Uzuni · Granada
77'🟨Víctor Meseguer · Granada
84'🟨Víctor Díaz · Granada
90'🟨Jorge Molina · Granada
90'🟨Lluis Lopez · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots6
6On target0
8Corners5
13Fouls12
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.550.68
cards avg (last 5)1.203.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
coach days203.00173.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.602.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.807.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.533.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.08
dominance (last 5)0.470.50
elo1602.751511.73
elo momentum (last 5)-0.064.37
eye test v1-0.55-0.82
eye trend v10.45-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)52.6057.90
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)2.120.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v1—0.82
league points23.0019.00
league rank2.008.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8076.40
possession avg (last 5)58.4055.20
rest days5.006.20
scorer concentration0.550.43
season ppg1.771.46
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.4010.40
skill v10.620.28
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.903.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.202.80
squad age27.44—
state index0.51-0.08
sterile dominance v10.960.67
threat rate (last 10)0.200.21
threat rate (last 3)0.180.20
threat rate (last 5)0.180.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80