← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Oct 16, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Jon González
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 51% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.34 |
| Lugo win | 20% | 4.77 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Lugo −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Cristián Gutiérrez · Málaga CF |
| 14' | 🟨 | Marc Carbo · Lugo |
| 17' | 🟨 | Pablo Hervias · Málaga CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Xavi Torres · Lugo |
| 52' | 🟨 | Cristián Gutiérrez · Málaga CF |
| 56' | ⚽ | Rubén Castro · Málaga CF |
| 75' | ⚽ | Dani Lorenzo · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francisco Villalba · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Loureiro · Lugo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sebas Moyano · Lugo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Manu Barreiro · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 45.00 | 563.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1391.25 | 1421.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.41 | -19.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.50 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 4.09 | 3.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 31.03 | 26.48 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |