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Málaga CF 0–0 Andorra (club)

← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Oct 9, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win42%2.30
Draw29%3.30
Andorra (club) win29%3.42

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Andorra (club) −0.2550%1.93
Málaga CF −0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

57'🟨Javi Jiménez · Málaga CF
64'🟨Manolo Reina · Málaga CF
70'🟨Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
74'🟨Sinan Bakış · Andorra (club)
85'🟥Álex Pastor · Andorra (club)
90'🟨Luis Muñoz · Málaga CF
90'🟨Genaro · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots7
1On target2
1Corners6
16Fouls10
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFAndorra (club)
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.690.56
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Rosaleda
coach days38.00646.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.602.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.96—
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.06
dominance (last 5)0.510.47
elo1395.191521.21
elo momentum (last 5)-9.1749.07
eye test v10.210.23
eye trend v10.180.39
first sub minute (last 10)45.3057.12
form points (last 5)3.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.95—
h2 goals (last 10)0.20—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.15—
keeper form v10.660.71
league points6.0014.00
league rank24.0010.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6077.40
possession avg (last 5)60.2056.20
rest days8.208.10
scorer concentration0.330.22
season ppg0.671.56
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.6010.20
skill v11.300.48
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.25
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.00
squad age31.5425.46
state index-0.860.40
sterile dominance v11.240.89
threat rate (last 10)0.230.15
threat rate (last 3)0.160.19
threat rate (last 5)0.190.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.40