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Cartagena 1–2 Leganes

← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Oct 9, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Iván Caparrós

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cartagena win43%2.28
Draw30%3.30
Leganes win28%3.57

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cartagena −0.2551%1.93
Leganes −0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.61
Over41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'🟨Damian Musto · Cartagena
39'🟨Pedro Alcala · Cartagena
45'🟨Gaku Shibasaki · Leganes
55'⚽Borja Valle · Cartagena
59'⚽Kenneth Omeruo · Leganes
62'🟨Iker Undabarrena · Leganes
74'⚽Juan Muñoz · Leganes
82'🟨Allan Nyom · Leganes
88'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Leganes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots9
7On target5
4Corners2
16Fouls11
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCartagenaLeganes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.680.64
cards avg (last 5)2.603.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal Cartagonova
coach days646.00130.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.06
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.684.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.580.49
elo1551.001478.41
elo momentum (last 5)30.69-17.34
eye test v10.69-0.43
eye trend v1-0.11-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)58.1057.60
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.411.10
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.700.64
league points16.004.00
league rank5.0024.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2079.20
possession avg (last 5)54.0057.80
rest days6.816.91
scorer concentration0.20—
season ppg2.000.50
shot diff avg (last 5)4.400.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.2010.80
skill v10.470.72
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.20
squad age—25.08
state index0.60-0.53
sterile dominance v10.330.98
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60