← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, Oct 8, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Las Palmas win | 59% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.20 |
| Ibiza win | 18% | 5.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Las Palmas −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Ibiza −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |