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Levante UD 2–0 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, Aug 27, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Víctor García

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win50%1.97
Draw28%3.49
Tenerife win23%4.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife −0.551%1.93
Levante UD −0.549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.80
Over46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Sergio Postigo · Levante UD
34'⚽Álejandro Cantero · Levante UD
40'🟨Dauda Mohammed · Tenerife
49'🟨Rúben Vezo · Levante UD
50'🟨Samuel Shashoua · Tenerife
52'🟨José Campaña · Levante UD
52'🟨Waldo Rubio Marin · Tenerife
62'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
82'⚽Shkodran Mustafi · Levante UD
86'🟨José León · Tenerife
90'🟨Aitor Sanz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots7
6On target1
3Corners3
16Fouls11
2Yellow cards7
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.650.65
cards avg (last 5)3.201.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ciudad de Valencia
· Tenerife
90'🟥Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
coach days299.00664.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.851.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.21
dominance (last 5)0.510.53
elo1629.811548.68
elo momentum (last 5)18.44-14.95
eye test v1-0.31-0.57
eye trend v1-0.540.04
first sub minute (last 10)49.9054.40
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.550.63
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.700.77
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2073.60
possession avg (last 5)51.2041.60
rest days7.106.00
season ppg1.000.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.801.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.6012.40
skill v10.50-0.81
sot against avg (last 5)6.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.40
squad age27.6630.69
state index0.30-0.25
sterile dominance v10.05-0.47
threat rate (last 10)0.320.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40