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Cartagena 1–0 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2022 · Fri, Aug 26, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jon González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cartagena win39%2.50
Draw31%3.20
Zaragoza win30%3.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza −0.2553%1.82
Cartagena −0.2547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.61
Over40%2.42

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Pedro Alcala · Cartagena
28'🟨Mikel Rico · Cartagena
34'🟨Jaume Grau · Zaragoza
37'🟨Manu Molina · Zaragoza
49'🟨Isak Jansson · Cartagena
52'🟨Valentín Vada · Zaragoza
58'🟨Toni Datković · Cartagena
70'🟨Radosav Petrović · Zaragoza
79'🟨Jaume Grau · Zaragoza
79'🟥Jaume Grau · Zaragoza
82'⚽Pablo De Blasis

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots12
3On target4
4Corners6
14Fouls8
4Yellow cards6
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCartagenaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.660.71
cards avg (last 5)2.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal Cartagonova
· Cartagena
88'🟥Damian Musto · Cartagena
90'🟨Víctor Mollejo Carpintero · Zaragoza
coach days602.00117.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.240.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-4.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.007.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.601.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.06
dominance (last 5)0.500.51
elo1511.781520.41
elo momentum (last 5)29.9830.54
eye test v10.420.63
eye trend v10.040.19
first sub minute (last 10)60.7052.60
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.521.10
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.610.79
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6080.60
possession avg (last 5)53.6050.40
rest days5.106.10
season ppg1.501.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.4011.60
skill v10.600.39
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.40
squad age31.7227.36
state index0.440.35
sterile dominance v10.360.22
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60