← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Aug 21, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Tenerife win | 59% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.43 |
| Lugo win | 14% | 7.65 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Tenerife −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Lugo −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.55 |
| Over | 38% | 2.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz |