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Leganes 1–2 Deportivo Alavés

← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, Aug 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Víctor García

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes win39%2.50
Draw32%3.04
Deportivo Alavés win29%3.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Deportivo Alavés −0.2553%1.82
Leganes −0.2547%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.53
Over36%2.64

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Miguel de la Fuente · Deportivo Alavés
31'🟨Jorge Miramón · Leganes
38'🟨Abdelkabir Abqar · Deportivo Alavés
60'🟨Xeber Alkain · Deportivo Alavés
66'🟨Rubén Pardo · Leganes
68'⚽Naim García · Leganes
73'🟨Allan Nyom · Leganes
74'🟨Aleksandar Sedlar · Deportivo Alavés
75'⚽Mamadou Sylla · Deportivo Alavés

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots9
2On target3
3Corners3
11Fouls14
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeganesDeportivo Alavés
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.680.57
cards avg (last 5)3.403.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Butarque
coach days73.00104.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)8.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.453.14
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.16
dominance (last 5)0.430.42
elo1523.821549.02
elo momentum (last 5)26.81-4.99
eye test v10.02-0.29
eye trend v10.570.23
first sub minute (last 10)54.9058.60
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.740.70
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4073.20
possession avg (last 5)40.4039.60
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.80-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.0011.20
skill v1-0.91-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.80
squad age29.7826.53
state index0.30-0.41
sterile dominance v1-1.08-0.89
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.340.31
threat rate (last 5)0.300.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00