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Genoa CFC 4–3 Bari

← Serie B 2022 · Fri, May 19, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Rutella

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genoa CFC win62%1.75
Draw23%4.47
Bari win15%7.74

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari −1.2553%1.86
Genoa CFC −1.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.84
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Alessandro Mallamo · Bari
12'⚽Stefano Sabelli · Genoa CFC
14'🟨Aurelien Scheidler · Bari
20'⚽Sebastiano Esposito · Bari
34'⚽Albert Guðmundsson · Genoa CFC
59'🟨Kevin Strootman · Genoa CFC
68'⚽Leonardo Benedetti · Bari
69'🟨Ruben Botta · Bari
75'⚽Caleb Ekuban · Genoa CFC
77'🟨Stefano Sabelli · Genoa CFC
86'⚽Walid Cheddira · Bari
89'🟨Walid Cheddira · Bari
90'🟨Raffaele Maiello · Bari
90'⚽ (pen)Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
26Shots12
8On target5
7Corners2
9Fouls8
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenoa CFCBari
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.61
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
coach days169.00687.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.413.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.09
dominance (last 5)0.570.50
elo1631.561586.34
elo momentum (last 5)7.612.52
eye test v10.27-0.29
eye trend v1-0.170.26
first sub minute (last 10)56.8046.70
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.30
keeper form v10.780.83
league points71.0065.00
league rank2.003.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4082.40
possession avg (last 5)57.2058.80
rest days6.186.27
scorer concentration0.220.26
season ppg1.921.76
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6012.40
skill v11.071.09
sot against avg (last 5)2.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.802.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
squad age26.3927.40
state index0.720.34
sterile dominance v10.551.01
threat rate (last 10)0.270.18
threat rate (last 3)0.260.18
threat rate (last 5)0.260.21
venue ppg (last 5)3.002.00