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Frosinone Calcio 3–2 Genoa CFC

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, May 13, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: G. Miele

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win39%2.49
Draw32%3.01
Genoa CFC win29%3.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genoa CFC −0.2553%1.83
Frosinone Calcio −0.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.70
Over43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Milan Badelj · Genoa CFC
27'🟥Mattia Bani · Genoa CFC
29'⚽Luca Mazzitelli · Frosinone Calcio
45'⚽Daniel Boloca · Frosinone Calcio
56'🟨Silvan Hefti · Genoa CFC
72'🟨Gennaro Borrelli · Frosinone Calcio
76'⚽Gennaro Borrelli · Frosinone Calcio
87'🟨Güven Yalçın · Genoa CFC
90'⚽Albert Guðmundsson · Genoa CFC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
14Shots12
5On target3
4Corners1
12Fouls11
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFrosinone CalcioGenoa CFC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.650.63
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Benito Stirpe
1.60
coach days803.00163.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.833.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.04
dominance (last 5)0.530.54
elo1631.331640.10
elo momentum (last 5)23.3813.10
eye test v10.580.14
eye trend v10.26-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)52.3054.90
form points (last 5)11.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.50
keeper form v10.870.88
league points74.0071.00
league rank1.002.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2082.20
possession avg (last 5)52.2059.40
rest days7.097.09
scorer concentration0.230.21
season ppg2.061.97
shot diff avg (last 5)1.402.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.6014.20
skill v10.381.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.40
squad age25.9627.94
state index0.830.70
sterile dominance v10.090.76
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.25
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80