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Sudtirol 1–1 Cittadella

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, May 13, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Serra

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw34%2.88
Cittadella win33%3.07
Sudtirol win33%3.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cittadella +050%2.03
Sudtirol +050%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.50
Over36%2.73

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Mirko Carretta · Sudtirol
24'🟨Nicola Pavan · Cittadella
41'🟨Luca Belardinelli · Sudtirol
42'🟨Marco Curto · Sudtirol
47'⚽Mirko Antonucci · Cittadella
51'🟨Elhan Kastrati · Cittadella
65'🟨Romano Perticone · Cittadella
69'⚽Raphael Odogwu · Sudtirol
80'🟨Gabriel Lunetta · Sudtirol
81'🟨Alessandro Salvi · Cittadella
90'🟨Giacomo Poluzzi · Sudtirol

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots11
4On target2
3Corners2
14Fouls16
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSudtirolCittadella
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.620.57
cards avg (last 5)1.404.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Marco Druso
coach days285.00681.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.010.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.12
dominance (last 5)0.380.57
elo1546.971444.37
elo momentum (last 5)-8.582.54
eye test v1-1.180.17
eye trend v10.070.57
first sub minute (last 10)47.1052.60
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.930.66
league points57.0041.00
league rank4.0015.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4071.20
possession avg (last 5)38.2050.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.260.27
season ppg1.581.14
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.003.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.4013.80
skill v1-1.12-0.43
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.704.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.005.00
squad age29.2528.95
state index-0.05-0.10
sterile dominance v1-0.66-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.300.34
threat rate (last 5)0.230.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20