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Brescia 1–1 Pisa

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, May 13, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia win39%2.50
Pisa win31%3.20
Draw30%3.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa −0.2553%1.82
Brescia −0.2547%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

49'🟨Hjörtur Hermannsson · Pisa
53'⚽Dimitri Bisoli · Brescia
58'🟨Pablo Rodríguez · Brescia
60'🟨Gaetano Masucci · Pisa
73'🟨Giuseppe Sibilli · Pisa
77'🟨Flavio Bianchi · Brescia
77'🟨Marius Marin · Pisa
79'⚽Gaetano Masucci · Pisa
87'🟨Fran Karačić · Brescia
90'🟨Olimpiu Moruțan · Pisa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots12
3On target3
3Corners5
16Fouls13
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBresciaPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.500.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.680.59
cards avg (last 5)2.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Mario Rigamonti
coach days101.00254.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-5.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.807.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.202.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.761.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.15
dominance (last 5)0.470.43
elo1426.201503.69
elo momentum (last 5)22.86-46.50
eye test v10.82-0.52
eye trend v10.050.32
first sub minute (last 10)55.0057.80
form points (last 5)10.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
keeper form v10.640.68
league points38.0046.00
league rank17.009.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.004.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4068.60
possession avg (last 5)48.8042.60
rest days5.917.00
scorer concentration0.190.16
season ppg1.061.28
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.60
skill v1-0.08-1.17
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.40
squad age25.8328.65
state index-0.05-0.95
sterile dominance v1-0.14-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60