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Frosinone Calcio 3–1 Reggina

← Serie B 2022 · Mon, May 1, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Prontera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win60%1.63
Draw25%3.80
Reggina win15%6.70

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio −0.7554%1.83
Reggina −0.7546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Zan Majer · Reggina
27'🟨Matteo Cotali · Frosinone Calcio
31'⚽Gennaro Borrelli · Frosinone Calcio
41'🟥Thiago Cionek · Reggina
42'⚽ (pen)Roberto Insigne · Frosinone Calcio
51'⚽Hernani · Reggina
57'⚽Giuseppe Caso · Frosinone Calcio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots9
5On target3
4Corners6
8Fouls8
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFrosinone CalcioReggina
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.540.73
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Benito Stirpe
coach days791.00304.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.912.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.08
dominance (last 5)0.580.37
elo1611.561449.65
elo momentum (last 5)-15.3912.56
eye test v10.35-0.36
eye trend v10.30-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)56.0049.10
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.770.66
league points68.0049.00
league rank2.007.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4070.60
possession avg (last 5)57.8047.40
rest days9.2710.00
scorer concentration0.240.21
season ppg2.001.44
shot diff avg (last 5)4.40-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.209.20
skill v10.68-0.68
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
squad age27.5128.32
state index0.27-0.28
sterile dominance v10.320.11
threat rate (last 10)0.270.19
threat rate (last 3)0.290.21
threat rate (last 5)0.270.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80