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Ascoli 2–1 Pisa

← Serie B 2022 · Mon, May 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli win37%2.64
Draw31%3.10
Pisa win31%3.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli +054%1.79
Pisa +046%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.61
Over40%2.42

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Pietro Beruatto · Pisa
24'🟨Marcel Büchel · Ascoli
26'🟨Marius Marin · Pisa
53'⚽Pedro Mendes · Ascoli
59'🟨Matteo Tramoni · Pisa
73'⚽Davide Marsura · Ascoli
82'⚽Gaetano Masucci · Pisa
90'🟨Davide Marsura · Ascoli
90'🟨Eric Botteghin · Ascoli
90'🟨Olimpiu Moruțan · Pisa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots12
7On target4
9Corners1
9Fouls18
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAscoliPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.460.57
cards avg (last 5)3.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
coach days89.00242.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.406.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.602.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.432.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.550.48
elo1472.261526.76
elo momentum (last 5)-0.21-28.25
eye test v10.70-0.72
eye trend v10.29-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)53.6054.10
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.660.71
league points43.0046.00
league rank12.008.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4068.00
possession avg (last 5)52.6044.20
rest days9.047.95
scorer concentration0.140.14
season ppg1.261.35
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.409.80
skill v1-0.01-1.12
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.00
squad age27.6528.79
state index-0.09-0.38
sterile dominance v1-0.42-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.300.20
threat rate (last 5)0.310.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20