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Cittadella 0–1 Genoa CFC

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Apr 22, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genoa CFC win45%2.16
Draw31%3.10
Cittadella win23%4.17

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cittadella +0.555%1.78
Genoa CFC +0.545%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.51
Over36%2.69

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Simone Branca · Cittadella
28'🟨Federico Giraudo · Cittadella
38'🟨Alessio Vita · Cittadella
39'🟨Romano Perticone · Cittadella
42'🟨Federico Giraudo · Cittadella
42'🟥Federico Giraudo · Cittadella
47'🟨Ignacio Lores Varela · Cittadella
56'🟨Massimo Coda · Genoa CFC
67'🟨Denis Drăguş · Genoa CFC
70'🟨Daniele Donnarumma · Cittadella
70'⚽Albert Guðmundsson · Genoa CFC
73'🟨Giovanni Crociata · Cittadella
77'🟨Milan Badelj · Genoa CFC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots15
2On target3
5Corners5
13Fouls19
8Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCittadellaGenoa CFC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.590.60
cards avg (last 5)3.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pier Cesare Tombolato
coach days660.00142.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.606.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.672.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.02
dominance (last 5)0.540.57
elo1432.701630.46
elo momentum (last 5)-23.6522.72
eye test v1-0.280.35
eye trend v1-0.29-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)50.0057.10
form points (last 5)3.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.15
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
keeper form v10.720.86
league points37.0064.00
league rank15.002.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)55.4055.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.320.20
season ppg1.121.94
shot diff avg (last 5)1.203.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0014.60
skill v1-0.090.74
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.80
squad age29.1028.60
state index-0.770.80
sterile dominance v10.450.31
threat rate (last 10)0.210.28
threat rate (last 3)0.160.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20