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Palermo 0–0 Cosenza

← Serie B 2022 · Mon, Apr 10, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Sacchi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo win52%1.85
Draw28%3.45
Cosenza win20%5.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo −0.553%1.85
Cosenza −0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Marco Brescianini · Cosenza
25'🟨Ivan Marconi · Palermo
60'🟨Mattia Finotto · Cosenza
61'🟨Aldo Florenzi · Cosenza
66'🟨Aleš Matějů · Palermo
80'🟨Nicola Valente · Palermo
89'🟨Claudio Gomes · Palermo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots10
2On target2
7Corners6
17Fouls13
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPalermoCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.630.60
cards avg (last 5)2.003.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renzo Barbera
coach days252.00160.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.162.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.06
dominance (last 5)0.510.40
elo1537.381390.41
elo momentum (last 5)-1.6047.64
eye test v10.05-0.09
eye trend v1-0.000.50
first sub minute (last 10)50.9056.10
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.710.72
league points42.0035.00
league rank9.0016.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4071.00
possession avg (last 5)52.2038.20
rest days9.279.27
scorer concentration0.300.16
season ppg1.351.13
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.6010.60
skill v10.31-1.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
squad age25.8626.59
state index0.24-0.09
sterile dominance v10.23-1.03
threat rate (last 10)0.250.29
threat rate (last 3)0.240.35
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60