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Como 1907 2–2 Genoa CFC

← Serie B 2022 · Mon, Apr 10, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genoa CFC win47%2.07
Draw29%3.32
Como 1907 win24%4.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 +0.553%1.85
Genoa CFC +0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Morten Frendrup · Genoa CFC
23'⚽Kevin Strootman · Genoa CFC
30'🟨Alessandro Vogliacco · Genoa CFC
46'🟨Alberto Cerri · Como 1907
57'⚽Massimo Coda · Genoa CFC
62'⚽Patrick Cutrone · Como 1907
88'⚽Leonardo Mancuso · Como 1907

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots10
6On target2
9Corners4
7Fouls8
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricComo 1907Genoa CFC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.590.65
cards avg (last 5)4.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
coach days221.00130.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.401.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.006.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.642.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.00
dominance (last 5)0.510.65
elo1457.641627.00
elo momentum (last 5)20.3324.62
eye test v1-0.220.36
eye trend v1-0.170.37
first sub minute (last 10)47.5052.70
form points (last 5)8.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.491.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v1—0.90
league points39.0060.00
league rank11.002.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0081.80
possession avg (last 5)47.6055.20
rest days9.049.77
scorer concentration0.150.22
season ppg1.261.94
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.407.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.2015.80
skill v1-0.280.81
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.80
squad age26.6229.34
state index0.271.07
sterile dominance v1-0.430.20
threat rate (last 10)0.300.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.28
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60