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Pisa 2–0 Benevento

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Mar 18, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Manganiello

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win50%2.00
Draw29%3.40
Benevento win21%5.07

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa −0.552%1.86
Benevento −0.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'⚽Stefano Moreo · Pisa
37'🟨Christian Pastina · Benevento
43'🟨Nermin Karić · Benevento
45'🟨Diego Farias · Benevento
71'🟨Maxime Leverbe · Benevento
78'⚽Matteo Tramoni · Pisa
85'🟨Marius Marin · Pisa
89'🟨Stefano Pettinari · Benevento
90'🟨Ádám Nagy · Pisa
90'🟨Maxime Leverbe · Benevento
90'🟥Maxime Leverbe · Benevento

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots5
4On target1
1Corners2
19Fouls22
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPisaBenevento
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.560.47
cards avg (last 5)3.004.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
coach days198.00198.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.012.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.570.42
elo1555.021458.73
elo momentum (last 5)-1.64-7.11
eye test v1-0.13-0.28
eye trend v1-0.140.61
first sub minute (last 10)54.9059.00
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.730.80
league points42.0029.00
league rank5.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4074.80
possession avg (last 5)50.2048.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.160.26
season ppg1.451.00
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.0010.20
skill v1-0.17-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.002.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.60
squad age27.5628.82
state index0.08-0.59
sterile dominance v1-0.180.20
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.260.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60