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Cittadella 3–3 Palermo

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Mar 11, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Massimi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cittadella win39%2.54
Draw32%3.00
Palermo win29%3.35

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo −0.2554%1.80
Cittadella −0.2546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.56
Over38%2.56

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Tommy Maistrello · Cittadella
23'⚽ (pen)Mirko Antonucci · Cittadella
33'⚽ (pen)Francesco Di Mariano · Palermo
35'🟨Giuseppe Carriero · Cittadella
37'🟨Dario Šarić · Palermo
39'🟨Simone Branca · Cittadella
45'⚽Matteo Brunori · Palermo
64'⚽Francesco Di Mariano · Palermo
74'⚽Tommy Maistrello · Cittadella
77'🟨Valerio Verre · Palermo
85'🟨Simone Branca · Cittadella
85'🟥Simone Branca · Cittadella
90'🟨Federico Giraudo · Cittadella

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
11Shots12
7On target3
4Corners5
25Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCittadellaPalermo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.500.67
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pier Cesare Tombolato
coach days618.00222.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.972.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.09
dominance (last 5)0.500.49
elo1456.351537.15
elo momentum (last 5)-0.63-10.53
eye test v1-0.50-0.21
eye trend v10.10-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)54.0052.60
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v1—0.80
league points34.0038.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4081.60
possession avg (last 5)53.2055.60
rest days5.967.00
scorer concentration0.320.35
season ppg1.211.36
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.4011.80
skill v1-0.060.81
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
squad age27.7227.01
state index-0.31-0.33
sterile dominance v10.320.73
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20