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Cagliari Calcio 4–1 Ascoli

← Serie B 2022 · Fri, Mar 10, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Miele

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cagliari Calcio win46%2.10
Draw30%3.20
Ascoli win24%4.54

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli −0.552%1.88
Cagliari Calcio −0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.56
Over38%2.54

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Francesco Forte · Ascoli
54'🟨Eric Botteghin · Ascoli
56'⚽Gianluca Lapadula · Cagliari Calcio
61'⚽Marco Mancosu · Cagliari Calcio
82'🟨Edoardo Goldaniga · Cagliari Calcio
83'🟨Davide Marsura · Ascoli
84'⚽Gianluca Lapadula · Cagliari Calcio
88'⚽Gabriele Zappa · Cagliari Calcio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots5
8On target2
5Corners2
11Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCagliari CalcioAscoli
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.110.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.160.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.630.51
cards avg (last 5)3.603.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueUnipol Domus
coach days68.0037.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.763.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.03
dominance (last 5)0.520.57
elo1537.271484.48
elo momentum (last 5)6.9221.08
eye test v1-1.06-0.40
eye trend v1-0.030.32
first sub minute (last 10)49.2053.50
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.840.76
league points39.0036.00
league rank8.0010.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8072.00
possession avg (last 5)45.2049.80
rest days5.235.23
scorer concentration0.330.16
season ppg1.391.29
shot diff avg (last 5)1.403.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.80
skill v1-0.55-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)2.401.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.00
sot for avg (last 3)1.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.003.40
squad age25.5027.11
state index0.190.20
sterile dominance v1-0.50-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40