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Pisa 1–1 Palermo

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Mar 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win49%1.96
Draw29%3.33
Palermo win22%4.56

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo −0.550%1.94
Pisa −0.550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Giuseppe Mastinu · Pisa
14'🟨Antonio Caracciolo · Pisa
30'🟨Tomás Esteves · Pisa
38'⚽Francesco Di Mariano · Palermo
44'🟨Edoardo Soleri · Palermo
86'⚽Giuseppe Sibilli · Pisa
90'🟨Valerio Verre · Palermo
90'🟨Davide Bettella · Palermo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots12
4On target5
1Corners6
12Fouls12
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPisaPalermo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.500.67
cards avg (last 5)3.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
coach days184.00215.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.863.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.560.49
elo1569.671534.48
elo momentum (last 5)15.88-6.01
eye test v10.04-0.40
eye trend v10.12-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)53.7054.10
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.770.80
league points41.0037.00
league rank6.009.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8081.60
possession avg (last 5)51.0054.20
rest days3.733.73
scorer concentration0.160.36
season ppg1.521.37
shot diff avg (last 5)4.80-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.8011.60
skill v1-0.320.70
sot against avg (last 5)2.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.20
squad age29.22—
state index0.37-0.20
sterile dominance v1-0.230.62
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20