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Venezia FC 0–0 Cagliari Calcio

← Serie B 2022 Β· Sat, Feb 25, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: L. Zufferli

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win42%2.31
Draw31%3.10
Cagliari Calcio win27%3.76

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC βˆ’0.2550%1.94
Cagliari Calcio βˆ’0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.67
Over42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

37'🟨Francesco Zampano · Venezia FC
49'🟨Mikael Ellertsson · Venezia FC
79'🟨Tommaso Milanese · Venezia FC
86'πŸŸ₯Petko Hristov Β· Venezia FC

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots14
2On target1
4Corners10
7Fouls12
3Yellow cards0
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCCagliari Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.560.58
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Pierluigi Penzo
4.40
coach days116.0055.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.873.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.06
dominance (last 5)0.510.47
elo1470.131539.19
elo momentum (last 5)11.93-4.00
eye test v1-0.31-0.97
eye trend v10.54-0.40
first sub minute (last 10)53.1057.50
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.740.75
league points28.0036.00
league rank16.009.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet8.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8071.40
possession avg (last 5)50.2044.80
rest days7.736.91
scorer concentration0.300.33
season ppg1.121.44
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.209.60
skill v10.13-0.79
sot against avg (last 5)3.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.60
squad age25.6625.47
state index0.01-0.12
sterile dominance v1-0.11-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.330.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40