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Bari 2–1 Cosenza

← Serie B 2022 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Rutella

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari win59%1.66
Draw26%3.75
Cosenza win15%6.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari −0.7552%1.85
Cosenza −0.7548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Sebastiano Esposito · Bari
24'⚽Andrea Rispoli · Cosenza
28'🟨Sauli Väisänen · Cosenza
45'🟨Sebastiano Esposito · Bari
45'🟨Manuel Marras · Cosenza
45'🟨Michele Rigione · Cosenza
59'🟨Alessandro Micai · Cosenza
69'⚽Walid Cheddira · Bari
74'🟨Mattia Maita · Bari
79'🟨Ahmad Benali · Bari
90'🟨Antonio Mazzotta · Bari
90'🟨Andrea Rispoli · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots16
4On target2
6Corners2
16Fouls17
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBariCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.600.68
cards avg (last 5)3.203.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale San Nicola
coach days591.00103.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.80-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.807.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.351.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.06
dominance (last 5)0.470.36
elo1547.841355.36
elo momentum (last 5)-20.881.53
eye test v10.10-0.84
eye trend v1-0.02-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)58.1053.40
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.830.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.810.79
league points36.0022.00
league rank5.0020.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6074.60
possession avg (last 5)45.8042.60
rest days8.098.09
scorer concentration0.300.17
season ppg1.570.96
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-7.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.809.60
skill v1-0.35-0.65
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.60
squad age28.5527.79
state index-0.02-0.74
sterile dominance v1-0.42-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.23
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20