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Reggina 0–2 Pisa

← Serie B 2022 Β· Sat, Feb 11, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: F. La Penna

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggina win43%2.33
Draw31%3.10
Pisa win26%3.81

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa βˆ’0.2550%1.95
Reggina βˆ’0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.55
Over38%2.58

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Stefano Moreo · Pisa
34'🟨Pietro Beruatto · Pisa
52'🟨Mario Gargiulo · Pisa
63'⚽Mario Gargiulo · Pisa
70'⚽ (pen)Ettore Gliozzi · Pisa
73'🟨Devid Eugene Bouah · Reggina
90'🟨Devid Eugene Bouah · Reggina
90'πŸŸ₯Devid Eugene Bouah Β· Reggina

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots5
2On target2
11Corners2
17Fouls24
2Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegginaPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.670.37
cards avg (last 5)3.603.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Oreste Granillo
coach days225.00163.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.05
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.112.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.09
dominance (last 5)0.580.52
elo1493.031541.15
elo momentum (last 5)-10.33-18.70
eye test v1-0.060.27
eye trend v10.01-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)61.2058.60
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v1β€”0.76
league points39.0031.00
league rank3.0010.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2074.40
possession avg (last 5)52.0050.00
rest days5.917.00
scorer concentration0.230.19
season ppg1.701.35
shot diff avg (last 5)5.002.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.8016.40
skill v10.19-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)2.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.60
squad age28.9927.21
state index-0.21-0.21
sterile dominance v1-0.21-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.280.29
threat rate (last 3)0.260.28
threat rate (last 5)0.290.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40