⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Parma Calcio 1913 2–0 Genoa CFC

← Serie B 2022 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genoa CFC win36%2.70
Parma Calcio 1913 win32%3.13
Draw31%3.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genoa CFC +055%1.79
Parma Calcio 1913 +045%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.58
Over38%2.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Stefano Sabelli · Genoa CFC
32'🟨Adrian Benedyczak · Parma Calcio 1913
32'⚽Adrian Benedyczak · Parma Calcio 1913
53'⚽ (pen)Franco Vázquez · Parma Calcio 1913
82'🟨Eddie Salcedo · Genoa CFC
89'🟨Vasilios Zagaritis · Parma Calcio 1913
90'🟨Stefano Sturaro · Genoa CFC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots5
7On target0
6Corners5
15Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParma Calcio 1913Genoa CFC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.630.65
cards avg (last 5)3.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ennio Tardini
2.40
coach days188.0066.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.09
corner diff avg (last 5)5.002.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.20
corners for avg (last 5)9.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.953.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.03
dominance (last 5)0.560.59
elo1495.111603.49
elo momentum (last 5)-29.0330.65
eye test v10.53-0.13
eye trend v1-0.29-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)50.6057.20
form points (last 5)4.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.40
keeper form v1—0.78
league points30.0040.00
league rank11.002.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2080.40
possession avg (last 5)56.4053.00
rest days8.098.00
scorer concentration0.170.20
season ppg1.361.82
shot diff avg (last 5)3.804.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.8014.20
skill v10.660.54
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.60
squad age26.0927.90
state index-0.370.65
sterile dominance v10.430.13
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.180.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40