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Ascoli 1–2 Palermo

← Serie B 2022 · Sun, Jan 29, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Feliciani

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli win39%2.48
Draw31%3.10
Palermo win30%3.39

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo −0.2553%1.83
Ascoli −0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.44

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Matteo Brunori · Palermo
56'🟨Aleš Matějů · Palermo
64'⚽Francesco Forte · Ascoli
66'🟨Ionuț Nedelcearu · Palermo
82'⚽Matteo Brunori · Palermo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
24Shots17
7On target8
12Corners2
12Fouls13
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAscoliPalermo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.150.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.670.78
cards avg (last 5)2.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
coach days212.00181.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.603.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.202.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.402.76
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.11
dominance (last 5)0.500.49
elo1490.451529.89
elo momentum (last 5)-9.1019.15
eye test v1-0.72-0.09
eye trend v1-0.20-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)50.3064.50
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.810.79
league points26.0028.00
league rank13.0010.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2077.00
possession avg (last 5)45.4047.80
rest days8.008.73
scorer concentration0.180.35
season ppg1.241.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.60
skill v1-0.77-0.10
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.80
squad age27.9127.38
state index-0.210.21
sterile dominance v1-0.57-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20