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Ternana 1–0 Ascoli

← Serie B 2022 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Irrati

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ternana win40%2.50
Draw30%3.16
Ascoli win30%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli −0.2554%1.81
Ternana −0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Frederik Sørensen · Ternana
27'⚽Antonio Palumbo · Ternana
54'🟨Samuel Giovane · Ascoli
60'🟨Lorenco Šimić · Ascoli
62'🟨Valerio Mantovani · Ternana
70'🟨Andrea Favilli · Ternana
73'🟨Francesco Di Tacchio · Ternana
80'🟨Alessio Re · Ascoli
86'🟨Niccolò Corrado · Ternana
90'🟨Claud Adjapong · Ascoli

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots21
2On target3
1Corners10
15Fouls15
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTernanaAscoli
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.500.65
cards avg (last 5)2.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Libero Liberati
coach days45.00198.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.800.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.603.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.15
dominance (last 5)0.430.51
elo1445.481499.84
elo momentum (last 5)-30.10-16.32
eye test v10.04-0.47
eye trend v10.04-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)55.1049.10
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.760.80
league points26.0025.00
league rank9.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8072.00
possession avg (last 5)52.2048.00
rest days19.9320.05
scorer concentration0.220.19
season ppg1.371.32
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.8010.40
skill v10.43-0.53
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.60
squad age28.0427.47
state index-0.71-0.12
sterile dominance v10.15-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.60