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Perugia 3–3 Palermo

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Jan 14, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia win41%2.37
Draw31%3.20
Palermo win27%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo −0.2550%1.93
Perugia −0.2550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.57
Over39%2.52

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Giuseppe Di Serio · Perugia
3'🟨Giuseppe Di Serio · Perugia
7'⚽ (pen)Tiago Casasola · Perugia
23'⚽Ivan Marconi · Palermo
27'🟨Francesco Lisi · Perugia
36'⚽Marco Olivieri · Perugia
41'🟨Simone Santoro · Perugia
48'⚽Nicola Valente · Palermo
59'🟨Marcos Curado · Perugia
62'🟨Jacopo Segre · Palermo
74'🟨Jérémie Broh · Palermo
89'⚽Matteo Brunori · Palermo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
15Shots6
11On target4
4Corners3
20Fouls12
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPerugiaPalermo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.560.65
cards avg (last 5)1.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renato Curi
coach days105.00166.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.402.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.07
dominance (last 5)0.500.53
elo1461.671520.13
elo momentum (last 5)22.0816.54
eye test v10.040.01
eye trend v10.29-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)58.3060.70
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.810.74
league points19.0024.00
league rank19.0013.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)63.6078.60
possession avg (last 5)36.8043.00
rest days18.9619.06
scorer concentration0.230.38
season ppg1.001.26
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.401.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.2012.40
skill v1-2.01-0.27
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
squad age27.8826.86
state index0.210.32
sterile dominance v1-2.31-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.350.26
threat rate (last 3)0.420.31
threat rate (last 5)0.390.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60