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Perugia 2–1 Venezia FC

← Serie B 2022 · Mon, Dec 19, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia win36%2.71
Draw32%3.00
Venezia FC win32%3.08

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia +053%1.83
Venezia FC +047%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.60
Over39%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽ (og)Antonio Candela · Perugia
9'🟨Przemyslaw Wiśniewski · Venezia FC
15'⚽Francesco Lisi · Perugia
19'🟨Marcos Curado · Perugia
57'🟨Ridgeciano Haps · Venezia FC
62'🟨Francesco Lisi · Perugia
85'🟨Andrija Novakovich · Venezia FC
90'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots10
6On target6
9Corners6
17Fouls10
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPerugiaVenezia FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.630.62
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renato Curi
coach days79.0048.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.162.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.07
dominance (last 5)0.460.48
elo1431.371473.09
elo momentum (last 5)5.5921.27
eye test v1-0.560.34
eye trend v10.060.32
first sub minute (last 10)55.2052.80
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.770.70
league points13.0019.00
league rank20.0018.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)60.6078.20
possession avg (last 5)37.2051.80
rest days8.338.23
scorer concentration0.300.26
season ppg0.761.12
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.0014.20
skill v1-2.250.27
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.80
squad age26.7925.54
state index-0.340.18
sterile dominance v1-2.08-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.290.23
threat rate (last 3)0.320.25
threat rate (last 5)0.340.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60