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Modena 2–2 Venezia FC

← Serie B 2022 · Thu, Dec 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Paterna

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Modena win37%2.66
Venezia FC win33%3.00
Draw31%3.15

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Modena +053%1.84
Venezia FC +047%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.80
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Francesco Zampano · Venezia FC
31'🟨Giorgio Cittadini · Modena
37'⚽ (pen)Luca Tremolada · Modena
53'⚽Nicholas Bonfanti · Modena
60'⚽Domen Črnigoj · Venezia FC
90'⚽Dennis Johnsen · Venezia FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots17
3On target4
4Corners3
9Fouls14
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricModenaVenezia FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.560.58
cards avg (last 5)3.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Braglia
coach days1133.0037.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.142.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.07
dominance (last 5)0.360.40
elo1423.941463.60
elo momentum (last 5)17.28-15.86
eye test v1-0.66-0.25
eye trend v1-0.060.47
first sub minute (last 10)55.2059.90
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.780.80
league points20.0015.00
league rank10.0019.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6076.40
possession avg (last 5)45.2050.00
rest days4.105.04
scorer concentration0.220.33
season ppg1.331.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.00-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.2011.40
skill v1-0.75-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)7.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.80
squad age29.4826.04
state index-0.20-0.32
sterile dominance v1-0.290.07
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.31
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40