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Ascoli 3–3 Como 1907

← Serie B 2022 · Sun, Dec 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli win41%2.38
Draw30%3.20
Como 1907 win29%3.39

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 −0.2552%1.89
Ascoli −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽ (og)Alberto Cerri · Ascoli
17'⚽Leonardo Mancuso · Como 1907
28'🟨Alessandro Bellemo · Como 1907
29'⚽Leonardo Mancuso · Como 1907
61'🟨Nicola Falasco · Ascoli
62'🟥Cedric Gondo · Ascoli
66'🟨Alberto Cerri · Como 1907
68'🟨Jacopo Da Riva · Como 1907
73'⚽Amato Ciciretti · Ascoli
75'🟨Leonardo Mancuso · Como 1907
79'⚽Álex Blanco · Como 1907
82'🟨Luca Vignali · Como 1907
83'⚽Lorenco Šimić · Ascoli
90'🟨Nicholas Ioannou · Como 1907
90'🟨Álex Blanco · Como 1907

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
15Shots11
6On target3
6Corners3
12Fouls14
1Yellow cards7
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAscoliComo 1907
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.470.72
cards avg (last 5)3.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
coach days156.0094.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.13
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.721.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.08
dominance (last 5)0.420.52
elo1516.161381.93
elo momentum (last 5)19.6829.64
eye test v1-0.47-0.12
eye trend v10.080.07
first sub minute (last 10)46.4046.00
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v1—0.73
league points20.0014.00
league rank9.0019.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2073.80
possession avg (last 5)45.0046.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.190.23
season ppg1.431.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.601.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.6011.20
skill v1-0.89-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.80
squad age29.0226.16
state index0.02-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.28-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.170.29
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20