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Venezia FC 2–1 Ternana

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Dec 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Camplone

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win40%2.43
Ternana win31%3.23
Draw30%3.27

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ternana −0.2553%1.85
Venezia FC −0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.81
Over46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC
37'⚽ (pen)César Falletti · Ternana
45'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC
47'🟨Francesco Di Tacchio · Ternana
62'🟨Mamadou Coulibaly · Ternana
65'🟨Valerio Mantovani · Ternana

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
13Shots17
5On target8
3Corners6
12Fouls12
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCTernana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.600.53
cards avg (last 5)2.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pierluigi Penzo
coach days32.002.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.15
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.461.76
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.06
dominance (last 5)0.440.42
elo1454.721475.58
elo momentum (last 5)-21.24-19.06
eye test v1-0.43-0.84
eye trend v10.03-0.47
first sub minute (last 10)58.1050.30
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.151.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.680.72
league points12.0022.00
league rank19.007.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2072.80
possession avg (last 5)52.2049.00
rest days5.836.83
scorer concentration0.230.22
season ppg0.861.57
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.6012.00
skill v10.11-0.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.60
squad age26.3927.68
state index-0.55-0.43
sterile dominance v10.24-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.202.00