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Brescia 2–0 Spal

← Serie B 2022 · Sun, Nov 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Minelli

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia win52%1.88
Draw28%3.43
Spal win20%4.86

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia −0.552%1.88
Spal −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Florian Ayé · Brescia
25'🟨Salvatore Esposito · Spal
41'⚽Massimiliano Mangraviti · Brescia
48'🟨Alessandro Fiordaliso · Spal
63'🟨Raffaele Celia · Spal
65'🟨Niccolò Zanellato · Spal
76'🟨Enrico Alfonso · Spal
77'🟨Massimo Bertagnoli · Brescia
90'🟨Massimiliano Mangraviti · Brescia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots11
7On target5
3Corners6
16Fouls15
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBresciaSpal
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.540.47
cards avg (last 5)3.203.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Mario Rigamonti
coach days271.0057.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.792.53
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.03
dominance (last 5)0.510.38
elo1540.791443.56
elo momentum (last 5)-10.218.55
eye test v1-0.60-0.75
eye trend v1-0.04-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)58.0055.00
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.65
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.660.72
league points20.0015.00
league rank7.0015.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win7.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0085.00
possession avg (last 5)45.8053.80
rest days14.9515.04
scorer concentration0.270.25
season ppg1.541.15
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.608.80
skill v1-0.771.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.40
squad age26.2126.08
state index-0.16-0.17
sterile dominance v1-0.581.11
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.320.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80