← Serie B 2022 · Mon, Oct 24, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 35% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.94 |
| Ascoli win | 33% | 2.99 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cagliari Calcio +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Ascoli +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over | 39% | 2.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca |