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Reggina 2–3 Perugia

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Oct 22, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Meraviglia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggina win49%2.10
Draw29%3.30
Perugia win22%5.15

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggina −0.551%1.92
Perugia −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.65
Over41%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Zan Majer · Reggina
18'⚽Federico Melchiorri · Perugia
32'🟨Yeferson Paz · Perugia
51'🟨Simone Santoro · Perugia
55'🟨Simone Santoro · Perugia
55'🟥Simone Santoro · Perugia
60'🟨Thiago Cionek · Reggina
62'⚽ (pen)Federico Melchiorri · Perugia
73'⚽Giuseppe Di Serio · Perugia
80'⚽Gabriele Gori · Reggina
87'⚽Giovanni Fabbian · Reggina
90'🟨Tiago Casasola · Perugia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
27Shots10
14On target7
9Corners5
8Fouls17
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegginaPerugia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.700.55
cards avg (last 5)1.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Oreste Granillo
coach days113.0021.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.002.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.832.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.13
dominance (last 5)0.610.52
elo1479.201434.99
elo momentum (last 5)15.76-39.13
eye test v1-0.15-0.67
eye trend v10.07-0.37
first sub minute (last 10)52.9046.80
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.640.52
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.720.61
league points18.004.00
league rank3.0020.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2065.80
possession avg (last 5)53.4051.40
rest days7.005.91
scorer concentration0.180.40
season ppg2.000.44
shot diff avg (last 5)4.800.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.4011.80
skill v10.24-0.96
sot against avg (last 5)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.20
state index0.40-0.88
sterile dominance v10.34-0.45
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.19
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20