⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Bari 0–2 Ascoli

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Rutella

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari win49%2.00
Draw28%3.50
Ascoli win23%4.83

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari −0.552%1.88
Ascoli −0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Cedric Gondo · Ascoli
-5'🟥Cedric Gondo · Ascoli
15'🟨Valerio Di Cesare · Bari
18'🟨Samuel Giovane · Ascoli
35'🟨Michael Folorunsho · Bari
52'🟨Danilo Quaranta · Ascoli
55'🟨Federico Dionisi · Ascoli
60'🟨Cedric Gondo · Ascoli
64'🟨Leonardo Benedetti · Bari
78'⚽Lorenco Šimić · Ascoli
87'🟨Andrea D'Errico · Bari
89'⚽Federico Dionisi · Ascoli

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots7
1On target2
8Corners3
15Fouls16
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBariAscoli
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.620.48
cards avg (last 5)2.404.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale San Nicola
coach days471.00106.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.230.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.13
dominance (last 5)0.520.51
elo1585.141474.66
elo momentum (last 5)41.58-41.31
eye test v10.54-0.34
eye trend v1-0.380.06
first sub minute (last 10)61.9055.30
form points (last 5)13.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.481.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.45
keeper form v1—0.65
league points18.009.00
league rank2.0015.00
matches since blank10.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6074.60
possession avg (last 5)44.2056.40
rest days7.097.09
scorer concentration0.440.38
season ppg2.251.13
shot diff avg (last 5)2.801.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.6012.80
skill v10.070.25
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.40
squad age29.1129.67
state index0.85-0.56
sterile dominance v1-0.590.31
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.290.32
threat rate (last 5)0.310.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00