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Sudtirol 1–1 Benevento

← Serie B 2022 · Sun, Oct 9, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: F. Meraviglia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sudtirol win35%2.80
Benevento win34%2.95
Draw31%3.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sudtirol +052%1.88
Benevento +048%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.67
Over42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Fabian Tait · Sudtirol
14'🟨Nermin Karić · Benevento
39'⚽ (og)Giacomo Poluzzi · Benevento
60'🟨Pasquale Schiattarella · Benevento
68'🟨Edoardo Masciangelo · Benevento
70'🟨Christian Pastina · Benevento
83'🟨Marco Pompetti · Sudtirol
84'⚽Giovanni Zaro · Sudtirol
85'🟨Andrés Tello · Benevento

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots10
4On target2
6Corners3
17Fouls15
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSudtirolBenevento
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.43
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.630.65
cards avg (last 5)3.803.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Marco Druso
coach days69.0038.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.801.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.60
corners volatility (last 10)—2.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.430.46
elo1491.891534.71
elo momentum (last 5)13.98-4.53
eye test v10.51-0.07
eye trend v10.550.58
first sub minute (last 10)50.5756.80
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)—0.82
h2 goals (last 10)—0.50
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.35
keeper form v10.730.81
league points10.008.00
league rank10.0015.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6074.20
possession avg (last 5)36.4047.40
rest days8.097.00
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg1.431.14
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.00
skill v1-1.42-0.38
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.292.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.20
squad age29.0629.10
state index0.06-0.05
sterile dominance v1-1.900.02
threat rate (last 10)0.330.20
threat rate (last 3)0.480.21
threat rate (last 5)0.370.21
venue ppg (last 5)—1.40