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Venezia FC 1–2 Bari

← Serie B 2022 Β· Sat, Oct 8, 12:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Giua

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win43%2.40
Draw29%3.30
Bari win28%3.75

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC βˆ’0.2552%1.88
Bari βˆ’0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

46'⚽Mirco Antenucci · Bari
49'🟨Mirco Antenucci · Bari
56'🟨Valerio Di Cesare · Bari
59'🟨Ridgeciano Haps · Venezia FC
59'🟨Raffaele Pucino · Bari
70'⚽Pietro Ceccaroni · Venezia FC
81'🟨Jesse Joronen · Venezia FC
83'⚽ (pen)Walid Cheddira · Bari
90'🟨Marco Modolo · Venezia FC

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots16
3On target5
9Corners8
14Fouls7
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCBari
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.680.62
cards avg (last 5)2.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Pierluigi Penzo
coach days129.00464.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.27
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.172.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.490.46
elo1501.811575.54
elo momentum (last 5)-6.5248.25
eye test v10.200.36
eye trend v10.30-0.37
first sub minute (last 10)51.2056.40
form points (last 5)5.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.63
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.50
keeper form v10.610.71
league points8.0015.00
league rank16.002.00
matches since blank2.009.00
matches since clean sheet7.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6079.80
possession avg (last 5)53.4046.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.47
season ppg1.142.14
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.0012.40
skill v10.320.07
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.705.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.00
squad age26.8228.00
state index-0.140.84
sterile dominance v10.16-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.320.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.20