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Parma Calcio 1913 2–1 Frosinone Calcio

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Oct 1, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 win40%2.47
Frosinone Calcio win30%3.20
Draw30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio −0.2553%1.82
Parma Calcio 1913 −0.2547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'🟨Stanko Jurić · Parma Calcio 1913
30'🟨Mario Sampirisi · Frosinone Calcio
45'🟨Gianluca Frabotta · Frosinone Calcio
45'⚽ (pen)Gennaro Tutino · Parma Calcio 1913
52'⚽ (pen)Dennis Man · Parma Calcio 1913
54'🟨Ben Lhassine Kone · Frosinone Calcio
55'🟨Gennaro Tutino · Parma Calcio 1913
55'🟨Luca Garritano · Frosinone Calcio
66'🟨Antoine Hainaut · Parma Calcio 1913
68'🟨Jayden Oosterwolde · Parma Calcio 1913

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots15
4On target4
3Corners7
18Fouls20
6Yellow cards6
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParma Calcio 1913Frosinone Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
box share (last 5)0.600.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days61.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ennio Tardini
81'
⚽
Luca Moro · Frosinone Calcio
87'🟨Enrico Del Prato · Parma Calcio 1913
88'🟨Daniel Boloca · Frosinone Calcio
90'🟨Antoine Hainaut · Parma Calcio 1913
90'🟥Antoine Hainaut · Parma Calcio 1913
90'🟨Luca Ravanelli · Frosinone Calcio
579.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.851.89
elo1474.501507.79
elo momentum (last 5)17.9218.24
eye test v1-0.060.48
eye trend v10.08-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)49.7062.90
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.49
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.710.74
league points9.0012.00
league rank9.004.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8072.00
possession avg (last 5)53.2047.00
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.360.29
season ppg1.502.00
skill v10.00-0.67
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.40
squad age27.47—
state index0.050.18
sterile dominance v1-0.13-0.91
threat rate (last 10)0.240.31
threat rate (last 3)0.260.35
threat rate (last 5)0.270.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80