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Frosinone Calcio 1–0 Palermo

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Sep 17, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win53%1.81
Draw27%3.55
Palermo win20%5.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo −0.7553%1.85
Frosinone Calcio −0.7547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Daniel Boloca · Frosinone Calcio
38'🟨Ivan Marconi · Palermo
44'⚽ (og)Alessio Buttaro · Frosinone Calcio
47'🟨Aleš Matějů · Palermo
53'🟨Davide Bettella · Palermo
80'🟨Matteo Cotali · Frosinone Calcio
88'🟨Jacopo Segre · Palermo
90'🟨Giuseppe Caso · Frosinone Calcio
90'🟨Samuele Mulattieri · Frosinone Calcio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots13
3On target3
3Corners1
16Fouls12
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFrosinone CalcioPalermo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.51
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.20
box share (last 5)0.540.68
cards avg (last 5)2.603.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Benito Stirpe
coach days565.0047.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.401.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.233.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.14
dominance (last 5)0.600.48
elo1512.571555.18
elo momentum (last 5)16.17-14.48
eye test v10.690.24
eye trend v10.12-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)63.9060.90
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.480.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.45
keeper form v10.730.75
league points9.007.00
league rank7.0012.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0080.40
possession avg (last 5)46.6048.20
rest days7.007.73
scorer concentration0.290.40
season ppg1.801.40
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.4010.40
skill v1-0.720.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.205.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.60
squad age25.5826.34
state index0.47-0.05
sterile dominance v1-1.070.25
threat rate (last 10)0.310.21
threat rate (last 3)0.320.23
threat rate (last 5)0.330.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.60