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Ascoli 1–3 Parma Calcio 1913

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Sep 17, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Prontera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 win38%2.56
Draw31%3.10
Ascoli win31%3.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli +0.2554%1.79
Parma Calcio 1913 +0.2546%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.67
Over42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Gennaro Tutino · Parma Calcio 1913
18'⚽Roberto Inglese · Parma Calcio 1913
20'🟨Franco Vázquez · Parma Calcio 1913
28'🟨Alessandro Salvi · Ascoli
40'🟨Jayden Oosterwolde · Parma Calcio 1913
66'⚽Dennis Man · Parma Calcio 1913
75'🟨Antoine Hainaut · Parma Calcio 1913
78'🟨Federico Dionisi · Ascoli
79'⚽Christophe Lungoyi · Ascoli
90'🟨Giuseppe Bellusci · Ascoli
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
16Shots10
4On target4
3Corners0
15Fouls16
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAscoliParma Calcio 1913
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.34
box share (last 5)0.490.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days655.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
Christophe Lungoyi · Ascoli
90'🟨Stanko Jurić · Parma Calcio 1913
47.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.803.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.802.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.582.07
elo1497.921455.19
elo momentum (last 5)2.21-1.74
eye test v1-0.360.22
eye trend v1-0.220.18
first sub minute (last 10)58.9052.10
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.03
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.690.72
league points8.006.00
league rank9.0015.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6079.00
possession avg (last 5)53.8055.80
rest days6.917.00
scorer concentration0.600.38
season ppg1.601.20
skill v10.300.57
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.40
squad age—27.47
state index-0.07-0.36
sterile dominance v10.660.27
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.150.28
threat rate (last 5)0.190.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00