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Cosenza 0–1 Bari

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Sep 10, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Gariglio

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari win39%2.45
Cosenza win31%3.25
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza +0.2553%1.83
Bari +0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'⚽Walid Cheddira · Bari
61'🟨Aldo Florenzi · Cosenza
73'🟨Valerio Di Cesare · Bari
85'🟨Massimo Zilli · Cosenza
89'🟨Aldo Florenzi · Cosenza
89'🟥Aldo Florenzi · Cosenza
90'🟨Enrico Brignola · Cosenza
90'🟨Sauli Väisänen · Cosenza
90'🟨Michael Folorunsho · Bari
90'🟨Gianmarco Cangiano · Bari

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots18
1On target4
3Corners3
14Fouls9
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaBari
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.49
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.490.68
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days101.00436.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.752.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.10
dominance (last 5)0.350.47
elo1389.461539.14
elo momentum (last 5)36.1514.47
eye test v1-1.050.66
eye trend v1-0.550.21
first sub minute (last 10)47.2057.70
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v10.760.74
league points7.006.00
league rank9.0011.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8080.75
possession avg (last 5)47.4053.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration—0.43
season ppg1.751.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.80-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)7.2012.00
skill v1-0.380.56
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.80
sot for avg (last 3)1.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.40
state index0.080.16
sterile dominance v10.540.45
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.120.28
threat rate (last 5)0.150.23
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.20